RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — Will he “kiss the coast” or “just walk away?”
That is the question with Hurricane Joaquin and how it acts over the next four to five days. The ECMWF model has been holding consistent with pulling Joaquin off to the east and allowing a nor’easter to form along the Atlantic coastline for the weekend.
Many other models pull Joaquin right at the east coast, and some bring it inland, even a few that turn it to the southwest at landfall (obviously wrong).
The “real answer” is not going to come until the storm stops moving to the southwest and makes its turn to the north. That will be late tomorrow night into Friday. Right now what I think is the most likely scenario is that the Joaquin makes a run at the East Coast and gets merged into the remnants of the front that is near us. Kind of our version of “The Perfect Storm.”
The bottom line on this is that we are going to have a lot of rain between now and Sunday night. A low end forecast of 5” of rain total for us is reasonable. A land falling path puts that total up to maybe 10” of more. So we are going to get soaked. Bring the storm inland and winds of 50 mph or more a possible even into Richmond. Keep it out to sea, and we will be more in the 25 to 30mph range.
Along the west shores of the bay, you will have coastal flooding and surges up the rivers, no matter what. To the west, the mountains are a bit concern with very heavy rainfall possibly leading to moderate to severe river flooding next week. All things to be concerned and aware about, but not time to panic yet.
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Tonight, a front stalls along the coast. Rain redevelops overnight with lows in the upper 50s.
Tomorrow rain is likely and heavy at times with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the mid 50s.
Friday will be rainy with a few breaks and temperatures in the upper 50s, lower 60s.
Saturday and Sunday, expect heavy rain with lots of wind and highs back in the 70s.
Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.
Image may be NSFW.Clik here to view.
Image may be NSFW.Clik here to view.
Image may be NSFW.Clik here to view.
Image may be NSFW.Clik here to view.
Image may be NSFW.Clik here to view.
Image may be NSFW.Clik here to view.
