RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — Forecasters say Hurricane Joaquin has strengthened to “an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane.” The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Thursday afternoon that additional strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours, as the storm moves past the Bahamas, bringing winds, heavy rain, dangerous surf and significant storm surge.
Hurricane Joaquin is a Category 4 storm with winds of over 130 mph right now in the Bahamas. Where he will finally go is still not set in stone. Computer models (fewer of them from yesterday) range from landfall over North Carolina to Virginia to way, way out in the Atlantic (but this is the same model that had landfall over us back on Monday). Right now the path is off the coastline more or less along 73°W. However, in all honesty, we really won’t have a good handle on the system until it stops moving to the SW and turns to the right. That is when a more definite course will be set.
The path right now would keep the very strong catastrophic winds from hitting us. It is still going to be windy and we are still going to have a big water problem to deal with in the next few days. That “water problem” is going to come from the cold front that has stalled along the coastline and the big fair weather system up over the northeast. The combination of these two, while not as “thrilling” as a tropical system are going to drop heavy amounts of rainfall and create some coastal flooding issues in the next 36 hours.
So while we might not take a direct “hit” from the Hurricane, it is going to be rather nasty out there.
Tonight, rain will increase in coverage and will become moderate to heavy overnight. Lows will be in the middle 50s. Winds will pick up out of the NE to 10-20mph.
Friday, rain, heavy at times will continue to move west through the area. Breezy winds out of the NE and highs only in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Rain over much of the area by Friday evening will be in the 2”-3” range. Friday’s issues will be a surge into the Chesapeake Bay, and rises on the rivers include the James River up possibly as far as Jordan’s Point. So,we could have some flooding and erosion issues to deal with.
Friday night that rain will move more to the west, so that while Friday night and Saturday will be rainy it will not be as heavy. Lows in the mid 50s, and Saturday’s highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday through Monday is when Joaquin would be making its closest approach to the area. Being on the west side of the storm, the rainfall should be light in general. However this is still the potential for 30-40mph wind gusts east of I-95. And with a saturated ground, that could lead to some power outages.
The weather will start to improve in the area by the middle of next week.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
