RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — As of 4 a.m. this morning, Tropical Storm Joaquin has winds of 70 mph and it is expected to intensify to Hurricane strength.
Joaquin COULD have a major impact on central Virginia if the majority of the weather models are correct. Joaquin would make landfall in eastern Virginia as a Category 1 or Category 2 Hurricane by Saturday evening — IF THOSE MODELS ARE CORRECT! This will have a major impact on all of Virginia as this would be stronger than Isabel and Irene, the most recent hurricanes to hit central Virginia. The scenario around Joaquin will change during the next 24 to 48 hours, as the models continue to come into agreement, so please stay on top of the forecast!
In the short term, the weather system that brought us all of the rain, yesterday and last night is pulling away, but we are not done with it yet. The trailing cold front is still back west and that will approach the region today giving us showers this morning, for the morning commute and then light rain this evening as it pushes into central and eastern Virginia.
It will be warm and humid today with highs around 80. That cold front will stall over us or just to our south and east tonight and Thursday allowing for another wave of rain to develop by early tomorrow morning and continue throughout the day. The rain will be light but steady at times on Thursday and it will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s.
That cold front will allow for more rain on Friday, as tropical moisture begins to spread out, way ahead of Joaquin on Friday. We will see periods of very steady rains on Friday and Friday night.
Saturday gets very tricky, as Joaquin could be making a swift move up the coast and be heading right into eastern Virginia for Saturday evening and Saturday night. If this is correct, rain will increase and the winds will begin to pick up throughout the day.
By Saturday night and early Sunday, according to most of the models we will be under the direct impacts of Joaquin, which would mean hurricane force winds and heavy rain throughout the night and early Sunday. By late Sunday and early Monday, we will be seeing Joaquin leave and drier, sunny weather making a return.
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